Now that you can manipulate
equations, let's see what kind of math Lam uses in his work as a market
analyst. Using any newspaper with comprehensive
stock market coverage, familiarize yourself with the terms and layout
of the page. Create a spreadsheet listing the name,
symbol, closing price and share profit for at least 10 stocks with a
bullish trend and 10 stocks with a bearish trend. If possible, include
5 local companies. Lam often uses the Capital Asset
Pricing Model (CAPM) and the Price/Earnings Ratio formulas. The CAPM is
used to assess the price of a stock in relation to general movements in
the stock market. The Price/Earnings Ratio is used to compare the price
of a stock to others in the same industry. You work
as a stock market analyst. The fund you advise has a very conservative
investment strategy. The managers want fairly secure, solid investments
because they cater to an older, lower-risk-oriented client. You've
been watching the stock of an established resource company -- Domtar
(symbol DTC). Domtar produces paper, pulp products and packaging. It's
a fairly volatile industry, but you think it may have some potential
for your fund. Currently Domtar stock is trading at
$10.50. You want to assess the stock's price in relation to the market.
The formula for CAPM is: stock price = A (stock's
variance) + B (how the stock fluctuates in relation to the market) M
(market level) Determining stock variance (A) and
its fluctuation (B) involves the use of university-level math. These
values often require hours of work and research to determine. Market
level is the composite index for the stock market in which the stock is
traded. You've already calculated the stock's
variance and how DTC fluctuates in relation to the market. The stock's
variance is 3 and that stock fluctuates at a 0.01244. Domtar stock is
trading at $10.50 and the stock exchange composite index (market level)
is 843.64. Is the price of the stock overvalued?
Or, is it undervalued? The formula for
Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E) is: stock price/earnings per share
Stock price is the cost of buying 1 share on the market.
Earnings per share is the annual per share earnings reported in the
company's financial reports. If the P/E for the company is lower than
that for the industry, an analyst would investigate further to discover
the reasons for its low price. Depending on those reasons, an analyst
might recommend investing in it. Check the
Price/Earnings Ratio for Domtar. According to a past quarterly report,
its net earnings per share is $-0.69. You do some
research and find the P/E for similar companies in the same industry:
MacMillan Bloedel Limited = -0.76 Repap Enterprises Inc.=
-0.67 Fletcher Challenge Canada Limited = -0.38
Abitibi Price Inc = 1.17 Ainsworth Lumber = -1.10
(Note that the P/E for these companies may be quite different
today.) Put this data into a table format.
Determine the P/E for this group of stocks from the forest industry.
How does Domtar's P/E compare to it? Should you suggest investing in it?
Optional Extra Activities
- Divide the class into groups. Have each group
select 5 or 6 stocks from a particular industry, such as mining,
manufacturing, auto or communications. Have each group select a
different industry. Calculate the P/E for these stocks. How do the P/E
ratios compare for the different groups? Which sector would your class
recommend investing in? Present findings to the class.
-
Discuss P/E ratios. Which is better, a low P/E or a high P/E? What does
a negative P/E mean? Could a stock with a negative P/E be a good
investment?
- In small groups, discuss this
statement: "The fund you advise has a very conservative investment
strategy. They want only fairly secure, solid investments because they
cater to an older, lower-risk-oriented client." Why does age make a
difference in investment strategy?
Curriculum Organizer(s):
Statistics,
probability and problem solving | Curriculum
Sub-organizer(s): Working with
equations; applying mathematics to solving problems in other
disciplines; and evaluating the use of statistical information in the
media and other sources |
Prerequisites:
- Calculator
use - Algebraic equations |
Resources:
- Stock
tables such as published in major
newspapers and Internet access for the teacher alone or class as a whole
|
Solution to Practice
The formula for CAPM is:
stock price = A (stock's own variance) + B (how the stock fluctuates in
relation to the market) M (market level) stock price = 3 =
0.01244 (843.64) estimated stock price = $13.49 According
to the CAPM, the stock is currently undervalued on the market. It's
looking like a good choice for investment. But what
does the P/E suggest about Domtar's stock? Average
P/E: MacMillan Bloedel Limited = -0.76
Repap Enterprises Inc. = -0.67 Fletcher Challenge Canada
Limited = - 0.38 Abitibi Price Inc. = 1.17
Ainsworth Lumber = -1.10 (-0.76+ -0.67+ -0.38+
1.17+ -1.10)/5 = average P/E average P/E = -0.348 The
P/E for Domtar's stock is 10.50/-0.69, so its P/E is -15.21. Domtar has
a lower P/E than the industry average -- so its stock is
underperforming the industry. It may not be a good investment for a
conservative fund such as yours, but it might (depending on further
analysis) make an excellent higher-risk investment. |
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